I consider it an honour to have been asked to deliver this year’s Abraham Malpan Memorial Lecture. It is an extra bonus for me to deliver the lecture on the M.T. Seminary campus where I completed my high school studies. My father too had studies in this school. This visit brings back fond memories of my life in the boarding house of the school, where I learned many new things under the guidance of teachers who are no more, but whose dedication and concern for students were inspirational.

This memorial lecture is also an occasion to remember and reflect on the unique contribution of the revered Abraham Malpan, the great visionary who played the lead role in the reformation of the Mar Thoma Syrian Church. When we study the history of this great reformer, we are struck by his strong commitment and courage. Here is a leader who challenged traditions and practices of the Church that he considered harmful and against the true faith. We see in him a visionary who stood firm for his convictions, and translated them into action. He was a reformer who was ready to face the consequences of his action, including the loss of positions, property and popularity. That he had the courage and will to act on his convictions and suffer the consequences is truly remarkable, considering the conditions prevailing in his land nearly two centuries ago.

While reading about Abraham Malpan, I was struck by the fact that his ideas were influenced by his interactions with the British missionaries who were working in the State. It was as though they were holding a mirror so that the Malpan could see what was wrong with the Church and its practices in that era. When we hold a mirror, we can see how we look and what is right and wrong with what we see. We need to ask, who is holding the mirror to the Church to day? There are no foreign missionaries in Kerala now. May I venture to say that we need to hold and look into the mirror ourselves to day? We need to reflect on what is happening outside and inside the Church and propose the changes and reforms that are required in today’s context. If yesterday’s reformation is not to become today’s orthodoxy, if yesterday’s practices are not to be frozen into a rigid mould, we need to be watchful, thoughtful and willing to modify where we feel changes are overdue. This is a lesson that I have learned from the life of Abraham Malpan.


From tyranny to freedom and empowerment

The world around us has changed a lot since the days of Martin Luther and Abraham Malpan. Centuries ago, the divine right of kings was believed to be the source of power. Today, the sovereignty of the people is widely believed to be the source of power. From treating women as chattel, we have moved to seeing them as partners and equals. From the age of slavery, society has begun to view all people as free and equal. From destruction of the environment around us, we have become more sensitive to the need to protect the environment. Most of the countries have moved away from tyranny and oppression towards freedom, equality and empowerment of the people. The information revolution that started with printing was transformed later through the technologies of radio and TV, telecom, satellites, and the internet to usher in a new era of people’s empowerment. Although we are not yet there, the goal of a modern society is to move away from the rule of men to the rule of law, and from a vision of exclusivity to a vision of inclusive growth and development for all people.

The trends I have highlighted above are universal in nature and scope. But for the Church, there are more specific challenges that lie ahead. For example, we have been a homogeneous Church for a long time, with people sharing the same culture, traditions, language and practices. As we expand globally, we are likely to become much more heterogeneous, and live with multiple languages, cultures, practices, and preferences. The same approaches and uniform practices of an earlier era may not work any more. Similarly, the big shifts I have mentioned above may force us to separate the cardinal principles that we need to hold on to as opposed to the historical practices that we have inherited. How is the Church responding to these challenges? It is something for all of us to think about.

My theme for this lecture, however, is a very different one. I wish to place before you some thoughts on the transformation that is taking place in this state and society and ask what their implications are and what actions they call for. “ The changing face of emerging Kerala” implies that changes are taking place in our society that many of us may not be aware of. We are concerned with our day to day affairs , and do not always know what long term changes are occurring in front of our eyes. The information and skills needed to assess such changes are not readily available to all. Even when the data are available, not every one is skilled in analyzing and drawing the right conclusions from the data. I have used the term “Emerging Kerala” mainly because it has been in the news lately, and conveys the sense of a state that is moving forward. But in the reports I read about this mega event, I did not see any attempt to look at long term changes taking place in the economy and understand and articulate their implications for policy and action.
I refer here to “Emerging Kerala” as the Kerala that will emerge in the next 10 to 20 years.

Why should we pay attention to the changes that might take place after 10 or 20 years in our society? The simple answer is that we might then be able to take preventive action today to mitigate future problems and take advantage of the opportunities they may create in the future. Major changes and reforms will require several years of trial and error, consensus building, legislation and creation of new and different organisations. It is unwise to wait for a crisis to erupt before we embrace the needed changes. it will be too late to undo the damage. To get ready to take any action or to tackle a crisis requires time, resources and planning. Environmental damage is a good example. If we are unaware of it and take delayed action, it may be too late. This is not say that we should not address today’s problems. New investments are needed to create employment for our youth today or to build the infrastructure needed by us tomorrow. But to tackle many other issues, we need to think long term and understand the broader long term changes that confront our society.
There are many long term changes and trends that emerge and operate in a society. It is not my intention to cover the entire range of such changes in the context of Kerala. Instead, I propose to deal with three emerging trends that will have a major economic and social impact on the people and their lives. I plan to highlight them because they will have significant implications and they lend themselves to be tackled through proper remedial actions and policies. Let me take them, one by one.


Kerala is poised to become an urban society

India lives in its villages, Gandhiji said, and that has been true of Kerala too. When the Prime Minister came to inaugurate “Emerging Kerala” some months ago, he said that the urban population is 30 per cent in our country. Perhaps, no one told him that he was speaking in a state where the urban population is already 48%, up from 26% just a decade ago. According to Census 2011, Kerala has witnessed the highest urban growth rate (83%) over the past decade among all the large states of India. A striking deveIopment is the growth of small towns from 159 to 520 in the last decade3. It means that many large villages have now grown to be called towns. I predict that this year Kerala’s urban population will cross the 50 per cent mark, leaving behind Tamil Nadu which has so far topped the list of states for urbanization. In the coming decade, Kerala will be about 60 per cent urban, assuming the same rate of growth as in the past decade. Kerala’s future is clearly urban, and our image of Kerala as a rural society will be a thing of the past.

How did this happen? Those who live in Kerala would have observed that migration of families from villages to towns had been taking place for some time, as incomes and education increased. Remittances from abroad have accelerated this process. As a result, there has been a construction boom in the state. Meanwhile our large cities have also grown. But the remarkable phenomenon is the growth of the small towns. In other states, industrial activities have led to such fast urban growth. That has not been the case in Kerala. Services, mainly to cater to the remittance economy, have been the main driver of growth.

Growing urbanization has many consequences, some good and some bad. The density of population is higher, making it possible to provide essential services and infrastructure to the people more efficiently. Quality of life can be better as cultural and social activities can be more easily organized when large numbers of people live in close proximity. Working people may find commuting, entertainment, communication, networking, and access to the work place easier. Environmental damage in rural areas may become less severe as people move out to towns.

Against these plausible benefits, we need to consider the downside of urbanization too. Solid waste management can be a big problem in towns as the people in Kerala already know. If cities are poorly managed, public services can become a serious problem and a cause for public dissatisfaction. Congestion and pollution will increase especially when urban planning is neglected and land use rules are violated. Fast urban growth tend to attract poor migrants in search of jobs, resulting in crowded slums. Crime, alcoholism and security can emerge get exacerbated as wealth gets concentrated in cities. Kerala, as an urban society, will thus face serious challenges in the years to come.


Demographic shifts will exacerbate the problems of the elderly

That the elderly population is growing in Kerala is known to many. What is less known is the degree of aggravation that is in store for this vulnerable population. Demographers are predicting that in the next 20 to 30 years, the elderly may account for over 35 per cent of the population, more than twice the current proportion (about 17 per cent in 2011)4. What is even more worrisome is that the proportion of children (under 15) will be less than that of the elderly in the next decade (19% vs. 24%). In fact, the working population of Kerala will also begin to decline in the coming decade and continue this downward trend thereafter.

This has major implications. When the rest of India celebrates the demographic dividend and becomes a land of youthful “energy”, Kerala will turn into a land of “wisdom”! Kerala will be close to Japan with regard to the elderly population ratio. Geriatric services will dominate the healthcare industry as this shift occurs. The burden on the younger generation will also become intolerable. Today, there are seven working persons in Kerala for every elderly person. In 30 years’ time, there will be just two working persons for every elderly person. Since the elderly do not earn, a reduction in the number of persons to support them means that society’s ability to take care of them will significantly decline. The funds necessary to give them health care and other services will simply shrink. This is a scary thought, one that demands careful reflection and early action.


Revival of agriculture and industry will be an uphill task in light of these trends

Both agriculture and manufacturing sectors have been stagnant in Kerala since the year 2001. Industry has improved somewhat in the past few years. The service sector, however, is the primary contributor to the rising incomes of the state. Many factors are responsible for this outcome. Migration of people to the Gulf, rising wage levels, flawed government policies, etc., have all played a part over the years. The Emerging Kerala discussions focused much on investments in industry and agriculture. The Prime Minister even talked about encouraging labour intensive industries in Kerala. The urbanization trend and the demographic shifts discussed above should caution us on the lack of realism in these well meaning plans and dreams.

Of the two sectors, agriculture is more likely to be hit by the future trends described above. Imagine the following scenario. More and more people move to urban areas to live and work. The size of the working population shrinks as a result of the demographic shift. But the education levels among this population, especially the youth, rise. The joint effects of these trends are predictable. When entrants to the labour force decline, but move to towns, and they become more educated, they will not be available to work in labour intensive agriculture. Most of them are likely to work in the service sector in the proximity of towns, where they can earn better salaries. Out of state migrants will be the only source to sustain labour intensive industries and farming. Or perhaps, as in Japan, robots will take over, in the absence of humans! The warning here is that the present labour shortage and rising wages will become even more acute with every decade.

On the positive side, unemployment on the scale that Kerala faces now may become a thing of the past. Unless the productivity of labour increases substantially, and machinery substitutes for human labour, there is no way that Kerala can arrest the decline in the key sectors of the economy. The state’s dependence on services as the main source of income and employment will become even stronger as the years go by. Lack of a diversified economy will bring in its own imbalances and risks.

The two major parts of the tertiary sector (services) in Kerala are education and healthcare. The impact of the trends presented above on these two subsectors will be very different. The demand for health services is likely to grow, provided the delivery system is able to cater to the problems of the elderly. Palliative care will become even more important. Social/religious organisations rather than hospitals are better suited to provide such care on a large scale. But education may find the demand for its services moving in the opposite direction. With the decline of the child population, demand for schools is already waning. The same trend will emerge in higher education too. For some time, a larger proportion of students may continue to enter colleges, but this will come down later as a saturation level is reached. But there is a more disturbing trend that needs to be noted. Today, over 3. 1 lakh students are going out of this state for higher education compared to 2.5 lakhs who study in Kerala5. This has major implications for the sector that need to be reflected on.

Those who look at the changing face of Kerala (reflected in the three major shifts highlighted above) without analyzing the linkages between them, may not see their full implications for Kerala society as they interact with each other. When one factor reinforces another, the problems created can become more severe than when such reinforcement does not exist. We need to understand the full implications of the interactions among these factors and reflect on how to respond to them so that their negative fallout is minimized.


Tackling the problems of the future

When major problems face a society, collective action will be required to tackle them. But collective action will be possible only when we have a clear understanding of the appropriate interventions demanded by the situation. Often the scale of the interventions will be such that only governments can make them effective. Vast resources, legislation and enforcement of laws will be necessary in most situations. This is not to say that local communities and organisations have no role to play. There are many areas where local action may help and local or private sector support and mobilization can reinforce state policies and efforts. But in general, state initiatives and action will be essential to move forward.

What policy responses and actions are called for to meet the challenges discussed above? Let us begin with the challenge posed by urbanization. Every crisis presents both opportunities and threats. As noted above, Worker productivity, connectivity, and delivery of essential services can all improve as a result of urbanization. Innovation, creativity and collective action are also facilitated by urbanization as a result of the concentration of resources and proximity. But the problem is that the existing system of governance in urban areas may not be adequate to support and achieve them. Outdated systems of planning services, infrastructure building, regulations, taxation, etc., will not be able to cope with the demands of speedy urban growth. How to improve our systems of urban governance is a priority challenge of the future. Revamping these systems will also call for expertise and leadership of a kind that our cities are yet to mobilise. Failure to undertake these systemic reforms will hurt the poor more than the better off sections who may use their connections and influence to get the services they need.


Coping with urbanization

Some of the initiatives of the State Government currently under way can assist in this transformation. The Right to Services Act can bring about greater efficiency in the delivery of services and improve public accountability and transparency. The e-Governance reforms being experimented with can make transactions with government easier, faster and simpler for both citizens and businesses. But civic groups and the media need to monitor these reforms so that they are sustained and improved over time.

Fast urban growth invariably leads to overcrowding, congestion and environmental damage through pollution and lack of sanitation. Often slums develop as poor migrants move in and facilities for them are neglected. Proper land use planning and allocation of funds for low income housing and essential services and infrastructure are essential to minimize these problems. A failure on this front will have disastrous consequences especially for the poor. Since many towns are still small and new, Kerala can avoid the crisis faced by large cities elsewhere. There is some lead time available to assess the needs, undertake land use planning and mobilise the resources and expertise needed to facilitate more orderly urban growth and environmental sustainability.

Improving the condition of our urban areas will call for more resources and expert advice and planning. It was, therefore, surprising for me to see that Kerala Government’s utilization of the funds allocated under the JNNURM (a central scheme for urban infrastructure in large cities) was utilized only to the extent of 30% while states like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh had a 60% record, and Gujarat’s utilization was 80%6. When urban growth is faster, one would expect the Government to mobilise and use available funds efficiently and speedily to improve urban infrastructure. Here again, civil society has a role to play by nudging the State to act responsibly. If we are really concerned about the poor, we should support these reforms. It is the poor who suffer most when urban governance systems are arbitrary and opaque.

Will urban expansion lead to environmental degradation? Much will depend upon how our cities and towns are planned and developed. We need to review our regulations and laws to see whether they comply with the new environmental standards and values. Land use planning itself can be a tool for environmental protection. The question is whether the government and the citizens will respect the new standards and regulations and refrain from their violation through faulty implementation.

Civic groups, professional associations and media can play a major role in proposing policy changes and legislation that can lead to better urban governance. We need not assume that only those in government have all knowledge and wisdom. There is no shortage of expertise in Kerala. Experts in law, architecture, finance, etc., are all around us. Experts from Kerala living in other countries have knowledge of the best practices that can be shared. Much information is available also on the internet. All these can be used to educate the people and increase their awareness of the need to protect their environment. Municipal laws and regulations that are outdated and badly in need of reform can be examined by expert groups set up by civil society. They can propose more transparent and less corruption prone ways of transacting business with municipal bodies. If new ideas can be debated publicly, government will have to take note of them. We have the example of a small group of people (Team Anna) in Delhi who came up with the Lok Pal bill and forced the government to dialogue with them. Exerting pressure on governments to reform their ways is part of the role that civil society needs to play. Advocacy of a similar type by civic groups was responsible for the passage of the Right to Information Act. Since urban growth is just gathering speed in Kerala, it is the right time for civic groups to play this role.


The future of healthcare and the labour force

A major problem for the elderly in Kerala will be the extent of care they can expect to get, given the likely decline in the working population of the state. The problem will be exacerbated if the elderly tend to remain in rural areas while the working population moves to the towns. To some extent, the crisis may be moderated by the reduced migration of workers to the Gulf as wages rise in Kerala. Children may then be able to be closer to their old parents than is the case at present. This in turn will also depend on whether employment opportunities are available within the state.

It is reasonable to assume that the health care needs of the better off among the elderly will be taken care of through their savings. Hospitals will come up to cater to their needs, and old age homes may be set up on a commercial basis for them. The real problem will be for the elderly with lower incomes and without children to care for them. In other countries, it is subsidized health insurance that takes care of their needs. The problem in Kerala will be that the revenues the government can earn from the declining working population will shrink over time, making it difficult to fund such health insurance schemes. Non-governmental insurance schemes subsidized by social organisations may then be the only remedy available for this needy group of the elderly. The rising proportion of the elderly will make this scheme unviable unless huge resources can be mobilized from multiple sources or subsidized health insurance is made universal.

One option that social organisations, including churches, may consider is a group insurance scheme for poor families that could be financed through low premia. Pooling of risks by enrolling large numbers of people is the key to the success of such low cost schemes. Kerala has a large network of both public and private hospitals that could participate in the scheme. A model along these lines is working in Karnataka where Dr. Devi Shetty took the initiative to launch the Yesashwini rural insurance scheme through cooperatives at a low cost of Rs. 90 per year per subscriber family. It has received increasing support (over three million members, 300 hospitals serving them) and functions as a self financing scheme with a surplus7. The scheme is being opened to more groups beyond farmers.

Demographic shifts that we have discussed above will have implications for the kind of economic activities that will be appropriate in Kerala in the future. As labour shortage gets exacerbated, the chances are that industries that produce high value items and use labour economically will move to the state. Labour intensive industries will succeed only if they can attract labour from other states.

Labour shortage will force the state to relax the retirement age of civil servants. Older people will continue in the workforce and earn for longer periods. Kerala is one of the states with low female participation (15%) in the labour force. This will have to change as more women may find it attractive to work and earn. Thus to some extent, the adverse impact of a declining working population may be compensated through the utilization of the less active segments of the population.


Quality vs. quantity in education

Finally, a major impact of the trends we have discussed so far will be on the world of education. Kerala society has already witnessed what the decline in birth rates can do to the enrolment in schools. The same trend will soon appear in the field of higher education. Though there may be a need to expand the facilities for higher education for some time, soon, a saturation point will be reached as there will be fewer students to be enrolled. The migration of students to other state will aggravate this problem even more. Kerala may then have the infrastructure for education, but fewer students to make use of them.

How can the available infrastructure be utilized for public benefit? One advantage is that the same facilities can be used for multiple purposes. As in other countries, continuing education is one service that can be offered. If more women enter the workforce or middle aged people need retraining, the same facilities can be utilized. Evening classes may have scope if the needs of working people to acquire new skills are to be met. Yet another option is to attract students from other states or even countries to get educated in Kerala.

But a major implication of what has been stated above is that enhancing quality rather than quantity will be the challenge for our higher education institutions. Our own students will continue their exodus if quality and relevance are seen as low in their home state. Students from other states will seek admission in Kerala only when they find they can get quality education. Retraining of the adult population will be in demand only when they find they can get good jobs after training. The key issue for the future will be how to transform our education institutions to a higher level of quality and relevance. The quality and commitment of the faculty and their retraining, the design of educational programmes, the style of management and discipline in our institutions, and the marketing of the educational products, all will play a major role in creatively responding to this challenge


Prepare for a new economic scenario

The third major shift I have signaled pertains to the future economic scenario of Kerala. We have noted that the future of labour intensive agriculture and industry looks even bleaker in the future. The service sector will continue to be the mainstay. Relaxation of retirement age, entry of more women into the workforce, and return of migrants at a faster rate may moderate the decline in the working population. But their productivity will be enhanced only through the use of new technologies and capital investment.

The Emerging Kerala panels emphasized the potential for investing in “high value” adding industries in the state. When labour costs more, this is a favoured option. But will it further speed up urbanisation? If the rural way of life is to be preserved, a better option is to think of linking high value production to rural areas. Though infrastructure and connectivity have been a problem in rural areas, new technologies are now available to overcome them. More educated women may work and earn from their homes if such new technologies enable them to participate without having to move to cities. It may even let older working persons to remain productive and earning for a few more years. An example is the rural BPO industry which a former student of mine has tried out in Karnataka villages with success. The potential for innovative solutions such as these in Kerala need to be actively explored.

The only other option is for Kerala to import skilled persons from other states. So far, migrants have come in only at the unskilled level. Increasingly, for industry and services too, larger numbers for people from other states will have to be recruited. Kerala that for so long has supplied labour, both skilled and unskilled, to other states and countries, will then get a taste of its own medicine! A major challenge for the state will be to accept and live gracefully with the phenomenon of “multiculturalism” that one hears so much about in Western countries.

In conclusion, the impact of the major shifts that I have discussed above on the poorer segment of Kerala’s population will be significant. Unplanned urbanization can worsen the condition of the poor. The demographic shift leading to the growth of the elderly population may make access to health care for the more vulnerable among them more difficult and costly. It is only the prospect of a rise in wage levels as labour shortage increases that may benefit the poor, and that too if they have the requisite skills. Hence the reform of the education system assumes special importance. It is in the interests of the poor that the reforms discussed above are properly implemented.

The implications of the futuristic scenario that I have presented here for the Churches of Kerala deserve to be discussed in detail. It is a vast and complex subject by itself. First of all, there has to be an awareness about these issues and an interest in tackling them. Second, there is a need to create a consensus on the responses to these issues and the role the Church can play in addressing the tasks that fit its priorities and resources. An important concern is how to sensitise the clergy to the changing trends through training. Admittedly, not all these issues need to be tackled by the Church or other social actors. Third, given the magnitude of the problems involved, the Church needs to create the kind of alliances and networks that can effectively contribute to their resolution. It is for the Church leaders, scholars and other thoughtful people to explore how a shared vision can be created for our state and society to chart the way forward to deal with these challenges.



1. A summary of the lectures delivered on November 6-7, 2012 in Kottayam.

2. Samuel Paul is a former professor and Director of IIM, Ahmedabad. He has taught at both Harvard and Princeton Universities and is a former advisor to United Nations and the World Bank. He is also the founder of Public Affairs Centre in Bangalore. His latest book is The State of Our Cities (Oxford, 2012).

e-mail: samuelpaul@mac.com

3. See The Census of India, 2011, New Delhi, 2012.

4. Planning Commission, Kerala Development Report, Academic Foundation, New Delhi, 2008.

5. Kannan, K.P., “Transformations and Tribulations”, Seminar, September, 2012.

6. See the website of JNNURM, Govt of India.

7. See the website of Karnataka Government for details.